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Probabilistic reasoning from an elementary point of view with spreadsheets.
This book is an analytical palimpsest which attempts to recast into spreadsheets and reimagine the Bayesian Stan-based analytics presented by Richard? for the data analytics that help business managers and executives make decisions. Richard McElreath’s vision and examples, though reworked, are nearly immediately evident throughout. But again this work is a palimpsest with its own quirks, examples, but surely built on McElreath’s analytical architecture. The concepts, even the zeitgeist of a Danielle Navarro1 might be evident along with examples from her work on learning and reasoning in the behavioral sciences. And if there was ever a pool of behavior to dip into it is in the business domain.
Chapter 2 is all about using our vast knowledge of counting to make inferences. Yes, it is all about counting. We count the number of ways in which data is consistent with hypotheses. Then we compare the relative frequencies of the ways to develop an insight into the consistency of data with hypotheses: if one hypothesis has more ways of being consistent with data, then, it just might be, that this hypothesis is more plausible.
Chapter 3 builds on the plausibility, that is the probability, that, given the data, one hypothesis is more probable than another, and strictly so. We will unpack the number of ways into prior probabilities, likelihoods, and posterior probabilities of the consistency of hypotheses with data. The result is Bayes Theorem. Some logic is thrown in for a chaser. A forecasting model will put a point on the analysis. By the way, we will effectively be constructing two way contingency tables in the process, fully outfitted for probabilistic interpretation and inference. Much spreadsheet formulation will automate our results...
1 Prolegomena to a Future Statistics
Part One – The Basics
2 Counting the Ways
3 Probability for Real People
Part Two – The Fantastic Four
4 Algorithmics 1: counting made easy
5 Algorithmics 2: binomial ups and downs
6 Algorithmics 3: playing musical raptors
7 Algorithmics 4: Gaussian blues
Part Three – Rubber meets the road
8 Gauss’s robots again
9 Gauss’s robots go rogue
10 Credible interval training?
11 Put It to the Test
12 Hypothetically Speaking
Part Four – The Test of a Relationship
13 Relationships Put to the Test
14 The journey continues