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This book argues that uncertainty is not really uncertainty at all but just demonstrates a lack of vision and willingness to think about the unthinkable – good and bad. The task of accepting that uncertainty is about exploring the possible, rather than the impossible has to be taken on board by strategists, policy developers, and political leaders, if we are to meet the challenges that an ever changing world is throwing at us. The term “unknown – unknowns” is ubiquitous, albeit the vast majority of future uncertain events do not fall into this category. However, it has been used to absolve decision makers from criticism post-event, whereas poor foresight is the prime culprit and that most future uncertainties are “known-unknowns” or “inevitable surprises”. This re-positioning of uncertainties can help mitigate the impact of such risks through better foresight aware contingency planning. The enemy is not uncertainty itself but our lack of imagination when trying to visualize the future – we need to transform our behaviour. To better understand uncertainty we have to deconstruct it and get to grips with its component parts. Three main questions are posed and practical approaches presented: What are the main structural components that make up the conditions under which uncertainty operates? What scenario lenses can be used when exploring uncertainty? What behavioural factors do we need to consider when analysing the human responses to uncertainty? Practitioners, having to deal with making better decisions under uncertainty, will find the book a useful guide.
Introducing the Programme and Its Contents
Setting the Scene and Introduction
Theoretical Underpinnings: Structural Components of Uncertainty
Locating Uncertainty Along the Risk Spectrum
Problem Status
Time-Based Criteria
The Evidence Base
Ways of Seeing the Future
Theoretical Underpinnings: Scenarios and Their Role in Dealing with Uncertainty
Scenarios: What Are They, Why Are They Useful and How Can We Best Use Them?
Scenario Derivatives First, Second, and Third Order Scenarios: Generic (Landscape) Variables
Theoretical Underpinnings: Behaviour—The Hidden Influencer in How We Deal with Uncertainty
Behavioural Factors: Cognitive Biases and Dissonance, Anomie, and Alienation (Or How We Humans Mess Things Up)
How to Mitigate the Impact of the Behavioural Minefield
Theory into Practice: Reactive and Exploratory Scenarios and Case Studies
Reactive: The Covid-19 Pandemic
An Exploratory Scenario Case Study: Social Mobility and Inequality
Achieving Net Zero—The Small Island Developing States (SIDS) Initiative: An Exploratory Investment Decision Support Framework to Help Address Uncertainty
Concluding Comments