| "it looks like reality will win out" - chris striking hayes, october 23 2020. "famous last" words, before an upset? will see. "looks like" is only useful if it looks like it on or around november 3rd+. the "october surprise" in 2016 wasn't even a week out, it was a few days. and the hollywood access tape was "looks like".. and the podesta emails then dropped the same day and trickled out. however it was weiner a few days before the election who truly elected donald trump potus. in effect the clinton's doubly elected donald trump, first by being incompetent bunglers to an epic degree who could still win toothpaste elections for a "charismatic" bill, and then secondarily by having none other than weiner as then husband to abedin. in the first sense, the 2008 global financial crisis was a bipartisan effort, really kicked into high gear by the clinton administration criminally re-coupling the global investment banks back into commercial banking from having any sense of "propriety" that even existed before then, and of course the dubya administration being a cabal of morons and warmongers asleep at the wheel in multiple gargantuan ways. obama was merely a reversion to dlc clintonism without a clinton as potus, a black man accomplishing potus being an achievement in and of itself in place of any actual real change that he had "promised" or at least campaigned on, and then how hard can it be to beat mitt romney? and now this current era is because the republicans blew up their party with dubya that allowed the distressed republican party to be a target of a hostile takeover by none other than tabloid trustfund elderly internet troll donald trump, who in a "conservative" type of way has done to the republican party what 8 years of obama did to whatever is the democratic party these days, that is drive it further into crazier-land than it was even in before. seeing the current data it is quite possible, even without any more "surprises", that biden could lose just based on the current statistics (even if the polls remain where they are). a receding global empire, a bubble market, and a global pandemic are anomalous to even recent memory when taken in totality, so it is safe to think that these polls are highly unreliable for many reasons. taking polls and averaging them is the heights of mathematical political alchemy. average the margin of errors? |